A weekend trio of big wins for Netflix at the DGA, BAFTA and Critics Choice awards has given Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” the gas required to make it over the finish line. That’s if it can keep its closest competitors — “Belfast” from Kenneth Branagh and “CODA” from Siân Heder — at bay.
The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, which is the top prize from the PGA Awards, has been one of the most vital and telling precursors from all major guilds. In 2009, both the PGA and the Oscars switched the voting for their highest honor to a preferential ballot system. In terms of films perceived to be divisive with audiences, PGA has become the litmus test for whether or not those contenders have the goods to win.
Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Predictions Hub
Since 2009, only three movies have won PGA and not gone on to win the Academy Award for best picture — “The Big Short” (2015), “La La Land” (2016) and “1917” (2019). Even critically divided movies like “Green Book” (2018) proved their strength with the group and then landed the Oscar statuette.
With a season as topsy-turvy as this one, whichever film takes the PGA will likely become the Oscar winner. The former also represents a last stand for movies that hope to break through after missing critical mentions on the circuit. Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” seems destined to walk away with the most statuettes of the night, with the artisan races falling mostly in its favor. Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard” has a sure-fire lead actor winner in Will Smith and possibly editing. Backers of that Warner Bros. release are hoping that the feel-good nature of the film — and the adoration for and inspirational stories of Venus and Serena Williams — will strike a chord with Academy members, especially on a preferential voting system.
After losing the BAFTA for adapted screenplay to Heder’s “CODA,” Campion’s Western might make a similar showing on this side of the pond, scoring Oscars for best picture and director. It would be the first top awardee with only two wins since “Spotlight” (2015), and the third to receive those two specific prizes, after “All Quiet on the Western Front” (1930) and “You Can’t Take It With You” (1938).
Based on Oscar history and its performance this awards season, “CODA” — scooped up by Apple Studios following its Sundance debut a year ago — only looks to be able to win best picture if it takes its other two nominated categories as well. And with only the SAG ensemble in its arsenal, it’s trying to trump awards history all around.
Branagh’s path begins in original screenplay, and after losing that award at the BAFTAs to Paul Thomas Anderson for “Licorice Pizza,” that hurdle has become more significant for the Focus Features release, which is based on the writer-director’s experiences in Northern Ireland during the troubles. Given that, “Belfast” hopes to go down the path of “The Broadway Melody” (1929), “Grand Hotel” (1932) and “Mutiny on the Bounty” (1935) — three films that won only best picture in their respective years.
Oscar voting begins on March 17 and closes on March 22.
The predictions for this weekend’s ceremonies including PGA, WGA, ASC and CAS, along with Oscar winner predictions for March 17 are below:
Producers Guild of America Awards
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Will win: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Philippe Rousselet, p.g.a., Fabrice Gianfermi, p.g.a., Patrick Wachsberger, p.g.a.
Could win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Will win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Yvett Merino, p.g.a., Clark Spencer, p.g.a.
Could win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (Netflix)
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Pictures
Will win: “Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) – Joseph Patel, David Dinerstein, Robert Fyvolent
Could win: “Flee” (Neon)
Norman Felton Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Drama
Will win: “Succession” (HBO) – Season 3
Could win: “Squid Game” (Netflix) – Season 1
Danny Thomas Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television – Comedy
Will win: “Hacks” (HBO) – Season 1
Could win: “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus) – Season 2
David L. Wolper Award for Outstanding Producer of Limited or Anthology Series Television
Will win: “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
Could win: “Dopesick” (Hulu)
Award for Outstanding Producer of Televised or Streamed Motion Pictures
Will win: “Oslo” (HBO)
Could win: “Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia” (Lifetime)
Award for Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television
Will win: “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney Plus) – Season 1
Could win: “Queer Eye” (Netflix) – Season 6
Award for Outstanding Producer of Live Entertainment, Variety, Sketch, Standup & Talk Television
Will win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO) – Season 8
Could win: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) – Season 47
Award for Outstanding Producer of Game & Competition Television
Will win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1) – Season 13
Could win: “The Voice” (NBC)
Writers Guild of America Awards
Original Screenplay
Will win: “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Paul Thomas Anderson
Could win: “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Siân Heder
Could win: “Dune” (Warner Bros)
Documentary Feature
Will win: “Becoming Cousteau” (National Geographic) – Written by Mark Monroe & Pax Wasserman
Could win: “Like a Rolling Stone: The Life & Times of Ben Fong-Torres” (StudioLA.TV)
Comedy Series
Will win: “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
Could win: “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Drama Series
Will win: “Succession” (HBO)
Could win: “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
New Series
Will win: “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Could win: “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Variety Talk Series
Will win: “Conan” (TBS)
Could win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
Variety Sketch Series
Will win: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Could win: “I Think You Should Leave” (Netflix)
Long Form Adapted
Will win: “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
Could win: “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)
Long Form Original
Will win: “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
Could win: “The White Lotus” (HBO)
American Society Of Cinematographers Awards
Feature Film
Will win: “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple Original Films) – Bruno Delbonnel
Could win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Greig Fraser
Feature Documentary
Will win: “Cusp”
Could win: “Faya Dayi”
One-Hour Series (Commercial)
Will win: “Mayans M.C.”
Could win: “Snowpiercer”
One-Hour Series (Non-Commercial)
Will win: “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Could win: “The Nevers” (HBO)
TV Movie, Miniseries or Pilot
Will win: “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
Could win: “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
Half-Hour Series
Will win: “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Could win: “Servant” (Apple TV Plus)
Cinema Audio Society
Live Action
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros)
Could win: “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Animation Sound Mixing
Will win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Could win: “Sing 2” (Illumination/Universal Pictures)
Documentary
Will win: “Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
Could win: “The Velvet Underground” (Apple Original Films)
TV Movie or Mini-Series
Will win: “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
Could win: “WandaVision” (Disney Plus) – “Previously On”
TV One-Hour
Will win: “Squid Game” (Netflix)
Could win: “Succession” (HBO)
TV Half-Hour
Will win: “The Book of Boba Fett” (Disney Plus)
Could win: “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
Oscar Predictions (as of 3/17/2022)
**not finalized
Best Picture:
“CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
Director:
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Actor:
Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros)
Actress:
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting Actor:
Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
Supporting Actress:
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Original Screenplay:
“Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh
Adapted Screenplay:
“CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Siân Heder
Animated Feature:
“Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Production Design:
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
Cinematography:
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Greig Fraser
Costume Design:
“Cruella” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jenny Beavan
Film Editing:
“King Richard” (Warner Bros) – Pamela Martin
Makeup and Hairstyling:
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures) – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
Sound:
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
Visual Effects:
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Original Score:
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Hans Zimmer
Original Song:
“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Lin-Manuel Miranda
Documentary Feature:
“Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
International Feature:
“The Worst Person in the World” from Norway (Neon)
Animated Short:
“The Windshield Wiper” (The Animation Showcase) – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Documentary Short:
“The Queen of Basketball” (The New York Times) – Ben Proudfoot
Live Action Short:
“The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aniel Karia, Riz Ahmed